The United Nations’ weather agency has issued a serious warning that El Nino conditions are rapidly developing and could significantly impact weather patterns around the world in the coming months.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is now an 80 percent probability that El Nino will emerge between June and August. Scientists say the phenomenon is being fueled by unusually warm waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean, creating conditions that could alter global temperatures, rainfall patterns, and weather systems.
The Geneva-based organization reported that forecasts from its global climate network show a strong shift toward El Nino conditions. Experts believe the likelihood of El Nino becoming established by November is now near or above 90 percent, with many forecasting models suggesting it could become moderate to strong in intensity.
El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Although it typically develops every two to seven years and lasts between nine and twelve months, its effects can be felt across continents through changes in rainfall, wind patterns, storms, and temperatures.
The climate system alternates between El Nino, its cooler counterpart La Nina, and neutral conditions. However, when El Nino becomes active, it often triggers significant disruptions to weather systems worldwide.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized the importance of preparedness, warning that El Nino could worsen drought conditions in some regions while bringing intense rainfall and flooding to others. She also highlighted the increased risk of heatwaves affecting both land and ocean environments.
Climate experts note that even a moderate El Nino event can increase the likelihood of severe weather conditions. Previous El Nino episodes contributed to record-breaking global temperatures, with recent years ranking among the hottest ever recorded.
Recent monitoring data indicates that sea surface temperatures in key parts of the Pacific Ocean are approaching El Nino thresholds. At the same time, underwater ocean temperatures have risen significantly above average levels, providing additional evidence that the climate event is gaining strength.
The atmospheric indicators associated with El Nino are also aligning with forecast expectations, strengthening confidence among climate scientists that the event is developing.
While researchers say there is currently no direct evidence that climate change increases the frequency or strength of El Nino events, a warming planet can intensify their consequences. Higher global temperatures create additional energy and moisture in the atmosphere, which can amplify extreme weather events such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and severe storms.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the situation as an urgent climate warning. He stressed that El Nino could intensify the effects of an already warming world, making climate-related disasters more severe and widespread.
Guterres urged nations to accelerate climate action, expand renewable energy adoption, strengthen protection for vulnerable populations, and improve early warning systems capable of helping communities respond to extreme weather threats before disaster strikes.
Looking ahead, the WMO forecasts above-normal temperatures across much of the globe during the coming months. This raises concerns about worsening drought conditions in regions already experiencing low rainfall and increasing pressure on agriculture, water supplies, public health systems, and energy infrastructure.
Climate centers are forecasting below-average rainfall across parts of the Greater Horn of Africa during the crucial rainy season. South Asia could also experience weaker monsoon rainfall, while Central America may face hotter and drier summer conditions.
Additionally, warmer Pacific Ocean waters associated with El Nino can contribute to stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific while potentially reducing hurricane formation in the Atlantic.
Experts believe that early warnings and proactive planning will be essential to minimizing the impacts of El Nino. Governments, businesses, farmers, healthcare providers, and communities are being encouraged to prepare now for the potential challenges ahead.
As climate patterns continue to evolve, the message from scientists is clear: preparation today can help reduce risks tomorrow. While El Nino is a natural phenomenon, its impacts in an increasingly warmer world could be felt more intensely than ever before. Awareness, readiness, and coordinated action will play a critical role in protecting lives, livelihoods, and communities across the globe.
